Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.468537 0.540908 0.619157 0.709851 0.811867 0.922860 1.052543
2025-05-25 0.356287 0.449613 0.558243 0.693278 0.855826 1.044333 1.278575
2025-06-01 0.286618 0.393527 0.526861 0.703596 0.929706 1.207111 1.570726
2025-06-08 0.228857 0.341761 0.492469 0.705006 0.993079 1.365522 1.878203
2025-06-15 0.193920 0.313849 0.484557 0.739567 1.103907 1.597657 2.307446
2025-06-22 0.150718 0.265762 0.440971 0.718750 1.137446 1.732226 2.624663
2025-06-29 0.119760 0.229871 0.409019 0.709727 1.186465 1.894011 2.998217
2025-07-06 0.094310 0.197321 0.376394 0.694366 1.223772 2.043075 3.370079
2025-07-13 0.080095 0.181379 0.368340 0.717377 1.324025 2.297552 3.925377
2025-07-20 0.065685 0.161540 0.349750 0.719419 1.390108 2.505645 4.429907
2025-07-27 0.055711 0.148226 0.340749 0.737106 1.485003 2.769886 5.048950
2025-08-03 0.047657 0.136987 0.333663 0.757195 1.586534 3.055077 5.728084
2025-08-10 0.036869 0.116512 0.304231 0.730706 1.602949 3.202694 6.202462
2025-08-17 0.027778 0.097123 0.272688 0.694191 1.595247 3.307203 6.613875
2025-08-24 0.022338 0.085745 0.257047 0.689103 1.649407 3.530892 7.259155
2025-08-31 0.017727 0.074979 0.240273 0.678391 1.690593 3.734628 7.887332
2025-09-07 0.015269 0.070222 0.238089 0.701906 1.808349 4.098762 8.847484
2025-09-14 0.011639 0.059590 0.216859 0.674394 1.809567 4.231298 9.376845
2025-09-21 0.009132 0.051880 0.201892 0.659904 1.838263 4.422378 10.036566
2025-09-28 0.007058 0.044724 0.186443 0.640865 1.853302 4.585940 10.654605
2025-10-05 0.006050 0.041862 0.184239 0.658562 1.960125 4.955737 11.720456
2025-10-12 0.004922 0.037659 0.176137 0.657461 2.019606 5.227110 12.602737
2025-10-19 0.004185 0.035074 0.173161 0.671388 2.119794 5.598534 13.723586